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January - July Highs and Lows In Chicago July Wheat Futures
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These two tables show a history of the January - July highs and lows in Chicago July wheat futures since 1973. The years are listed in order of the total all US wheat supply stated as a per cent of the previous year's use together with the actual January - July high or low, its date and the high or low stated as a percent of the average closing price of July futures on January 1st. For example, not only does the table show that the January - July high for the 1986/87 crop year was $2.98 on May 9, 1986, it also shows that the high was 106% of the January 1st closing price of July 1986 Chicago wheat futures. If, in the current year, the January 1st closing price of July wheat were $3.00, the same percentage move would result in a high of $3.18(106% x $3.00).
The years are separated according to whether the total supply was greater or less than 125% of the previous year's use in order to help forecast timing and levels of highs and lows. Years with smaller supplies tend to make higher and later highs.
January - July Highs and Lows In July Corn Futures
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These tables show a history of the January-July highs and lows in July corn futures since the 1967/68 crop year. The years are separated into three categories; 1) years with increased usage, 2) years with decreased usage and 3) years in which there was crop trouble during the summer in the new crop. We have found these categories to be useful in predicting timing of highs and lows. For example, in years with decreased usage, the January - July high usually occurred in January.
The years are listed in order of the size of the corn carry out stated as a percent of use because years with smaller carry out stocks tend to have higher prices.
The highs and lows are stated in absolute terms and as a percent of the closing price of July futures on January 1st. By looking at the change relative to the January 1st price, it is easier to compare this year to past years when price levels were quite different. For example, not only does the table show that the January - July high for the 1986/87 crop year was $2.02 3/4 on June 16, 1987, it also shows that the high was 119% of $1.69 3/4 which was the January 1, 1987 closing price of July 1987 corn futures. If, in the current year, the January 1st closing price of July corn were $2.00, the same percentage move would result in a high of $2.38(119% x $2.00).
January - July Highs and Lows In July Soybean Futures
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These tables show a history of the January-July highs and lows in July soybean futures since the 1979/80 crop year. The years in which there was a crop scare in the new crop during the summer are shown separately because, in these years, the old crop July futures made a much higher high and made its high late in the January - July period.
The years are listed in order of the size of the world soybean carry out stated as a percent of use as an aid in forecasting the level of the highs and lows.
The highs and lows are stated in absolute terms and as a percent of the closing price of July futures on January 1st. By looking at the change relative to the January 1st price, it is easier to compare this year to past years when price levels were quite different. For example, not only does the table show that the January - July high for the 1979/80 crop year was $8.16 on July 17, 1980, it also shows that the high was 116% of $7.05 which was the January 1, 1980 closing price of July 1980 soybean futures. If, in the current year, the January 1st closing price of July soybeans were $6.00, the same percentage move would result in a high of $6.96(116% x $6.00).
July - November Highs and Lows In November Soybean Futures
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These tables show a history of the July - November highs and lows in the November soybean futures since the 1965 crop year. The years are separated according to whether the total supply exceeded or fell below 110% of the previous year's usage because this is helpful in forecasting the timing of highs and lows.
In the years with supply equal to or greater than 110% of previous year's usage, the July - November high in November soybean futures typically occurred in July or August. The lows occurred after September 15th fairly consistently.
The highs and lows are stated in absolute terms and as a percent of the average closing price of November futures on April 1st, May 1st, June 1st and July 1st. By looking at the change relative to the average April 1st, May 1st, June 1st and July 1st closing price, it is easier to compare this year to past years when price levels were quite different. For example, not only does the table show that the July - November high for the 1970/71 crop year was $3.10 1/4 on October 28, 1970, it also shows that the high was 117% of the average April 1st, May 1st, June 1st and July 1st closing price of November 1970 soybean futures. If, in the current year, the average closing price of November soybeans were $6.00, the same percentage move would result in a high of $7.02(117% x $6.00).
June - March Highs and Lows In Chicago March Wheat Futures
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These tables show a history of the June - March highs and lows in Chicago March wheat futures since 1973. The years are listed in order of the total all US wheat supply stated as a per cent of the previous year's use together with the actual June - March high and lows, the date they occurred and the high or low stated as a percent of the average closing price of March futures on April 1st, May 1st and June 1st. For example, not only does the table show that the June - March high for the 1986/87 crop year was $2.98 1/2 on March 6,1987, it also shows that the high was 110% of the average April 1st, May 1st and June 1st closing price of March 1987 Chicago wheat futures. If, in the current year, the average closing price of March wheat were $3.00, the same percentage move would result in a high of $3.30(110% x $3.00).
The years are separated according to whether the total US supply was greater or less than 126% of the previous year's use in order to help forecast timing and levels of highs and lows. Years with smaller supplies tend to make higher and later highs.
July - December Highs and Lows In December Corn Futures
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These tables show a history of the July- December highs and lows in the December corn futures since the 1965 crop year. The years are separated according to whether production exceeded or fell below usage because this is helpful inforecasting the timing of highs and lows.
In the years with production above usage, the July - December high in December corn futures typically occurred in July or August.
The highs and lows are stated in absolute terms and as a percent of the average closing price of December futures on April 1st, May 1st, June 1st and July 1st. By looking at the change relative to the average April 1st, May 1st, June 1st and July 1st closing price, it is easier to compare this year to past years when price levels were quite different. For example, not only does the table show that the July - December high for the 1985/86 crop year was $2.52 on July 5, 1985, it also shows that the high was 98% of the average April 1st, May 1st, June 1st and July 1st closing price of December 1985 corn futures. If, in the current year, the average closing price of November soybeans were $2.50, the same percentage move would result in a high of $2.45(98% x $2.50).
Regional Corn Net Imports/Exports
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These tables identify the supply and demand for corn in various states with these states aggregated by regions. The purpose of the tables is to indicate the net movement of corn. Specifically, total disappearance is calculated by subtracting carry out from the beginning supply(carry in plus production). This number is subtracted from domestic usage (feed, residual and processing). If the result is negative, it means that disappearance exceeded domestic usage and that the state was a net exporter by that negative difference. If the result is positive, it means that domestic usage exceeded disappearance and that the state was a net importer by that positive difference.
US Corn and Soybean Supply/Demand History
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These tables are a summary history of US production and use showing the total supply in absolute terms and as a percent of previous year's use together with the carry out in absolute terms and as a percent of same year's use. The years are listed both chronologically and in order of carry out as a percent of use. The highs of the lead new crop futures month and the date it occurred are also listed. It can be seen that smaller carry out supplies are linked to higher futures prices and later highs.
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These tables show USDA and John Stewart & Associates(JS&A) US supply/demand data and forecasts in summary form for three years. The earliest year will always be history and the more recent years will be partly or totally forecasts depending on the date that the tables were made.
The supply is broken down into its components of beginning stocks, imports and domestic production. Usage is broken down into exports plus the domestic components of food, processing, seed and residual.
Residual usage is that portion of usage which is only known by calculated disappearance. In the case of corn, the residual is the largest component of disappearance. For example, in the 1998/99 crop year, the beginning supply of corn was 11,086 million bushels composed of 1,308 million bushels of stocks left over from the 1997/98 crop year plus 19 million bushels of imports plus a crop of 9,759 million bushels. The ending stocks that year were 1,787 million bushels and total disappearance was 9,299 million bushels. Exports were 1,981 million bushels as weighed by the US inspectors at the loading ports and processing use was 1,822 million bushels as determined by USDA's informal survey of corn processors. Since exports and processing use added up to only 3,803 million bushels while total use was 9,299 million bushels, the residual use was the difference of 5,496 million bushels.
World Wheat, Corn and Soybean Supply/Demand History
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These tables are a summary history of world production and use showing the total supply in absolute terms and as a percent of previous year's use together with the carry out in absolute terms and as a percent of same year's use. The years are listed both chronologically and in order of carry out as a percent of use. These tables are meant to complement the US supply/demand history. Since the US exports a significant portion of its wheat, corn and soybeans, the world supply/demand balance is a critical price making factor.
World Wheat, Corn, Soybeans, Oilseeds and Products Supply/Distribution
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These tables are a summary history of world production and use broken down into major importers and exporters. These tables allow one to identify who the major markets and competitors for US grains, oilseeds and products are.
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